CZ25  +10'2

SX25  +10'6

Atch -38Z 

CGB -40Z 

AGP -60X 

KC -35X 

The corn board has had a nice week getting back over the 420 CZ area. 

In September, we got to 431^2 a couple of times and stalled out 

Export Inspections are the one report the industry still gets during the shutdown.  At the low end for corn estimates today 

Corn export inspections were 44.5 million bushels, vs estimates of 47.2 to 65.9 million 

10-week average is 56 million bushels 

For the crop year, 4% ahead of the seasonal pace to meet USDA export estimate 

Ethanol report from the DOE was out Thursday, but not too exciting 

Total stocks were down 92k barrels  

Production and demand were both slightly up 

Corn spreads continue to come in (meaning less carry) 

Some of this could be the crop does indeed continue to get smaller 

A lot of it has to do with lack of farmer selling and the market needs to help to incentivize growers to feed the market 

Basis is steady to a touch firmer. Nothing crazy but with bean harvest taking the priority, end users/shuttle loaders will want the corn to continue to flow. The shift to post harvest basis will happen soon. Keep an eye on basis as there may be opportunities going to into the holidays. 

China imported 12.87 mmt or 473 mbu of beans in September  

The 2nd largest for any month on record and up 13% YoY  

Jan-Sept Chinese bean imports are pegged at 86.2 mmt, up over 5% on the year 

NOPA knocked another one out of the park Wednesday 

Coming in well above the estimated range at 197.9 mbu for the month of September (est. 176.5-195.0 mbu)  

Soy oil stocks came in just above the average guess at 1243 mil lbs 

But was at a 9-month low 

We will take all of the extra crush demand we can at this point 

President Trump on Tuesday called China “economically hostile” for not buying American soybeans and threatened to halt imports of cooking oil and other products from the country in retaliation. 

Basis has signs of life as crushers look to keep full post harvest. If I were a crusher and looking at big carries, the cheapest bean they can own is right now. But with carries in the board, basis will have to entice sellers to weigh the option of carrying or pitching. Saying that, a board rally post harvest can bring a lot of beans to market and without an export program the crushers may not have to work too hard to originate beans. And crush margins are not enough at the moment to get processors excited to go out and put on a big position of ownership. 

CZ25 -3.75 

SX25 -5.25 

Atch -40Z 

CGB -45Z 

AGP -60X 

KC -45X 

We do get Export Inspections from the USDA despite the government shutdown. 

Corn was strong at 63.0 million bushels, vs range of guesses at 55.1 to 65 million bushels. 

10-week average 55.3 million bushels 

Now 3% ahead of the seasonal pace needed to meet the USDA estimated exports for the year. 

Ethanol margins continue to impress, especially considering they are nearly $0.40 above last year at this time 

USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report released last week showed a much slower-than-expected usage pace for corn in the June 1 to Sept. 1 period. Total corn disappearance in the last quarter of the 2024/25 marketing year fell to 3.111 billion bushels, down 122 million bushels or 3.8% YoY, despite a robust export program. The drag on corn demand came from weaker domestic usage. 

Corn used for ethanol production is eroding as producers on the Plains use more grain sorghum. Feed demand, which does not have the benefit of transparency from regular reports like export inspections or ethanol production, is also showing signs of weakness. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report recently showed a 1% YoY drop in hogs and pigs, the number of cattle on feed is down 1% YoY, and the total laying flock is down 1% YoY. 

The continued rumors around direct payments look to be on hold until the government is open again. 

Many were expecting an announcement this week with details of the program, but Secretary Rollins stated nothing will be announced until the shutdown is over. 

Corn basis is still muted. Plenty of bushels are moving, even though soybean harvest will be back in full swing in the next couple of days. Nothing is moving on deferred months either. Expect post harvest appreciation but how much will be determined by the farmers’ selling mentality. 

For the week ending 10/2, 28.2 mbu of beans inspected 

Near the high end of estimates (22.0-29.4 mbu) 

Beans fall short of the USDA’s seasonal pace by 10 mbu 

Analysts on average put bean harvest at 39% complete, which would be up 19% from last week but behind last year’s 47% at this time 

Brazil had its best Sept for soybean exports on record, with 7.341 MMT exported  

Which would be 43.4% higher than the previous 5-year average for the month 

So in conclusion, the US/China trade war is a little game called: Brazil wins!  

But I do think it is worth mentioning, although it would be nice to have some trade flow and sales on with the world’s largest soybean importer, our biggest problem is that we have a global oversupply of the oilseed 

Soybean disappearance last quarter improved over last year’s pace. Total implied soybean usage for the Jun. 1 to Sep. 1 period rose to 691.2 million bushels, up an impressive 10.1% or 63.6 million bushels YoY with expanded crush capacity making up for slower soybean exports. 

The EPA held a timely, virtual public hearing Oct. 1 regarding its supplemental proposed rule for Renewable Fuel Standard requirements for 2026 and 2027. The hearing specifically focused on the reallocation of exempted renewable identification numbers (RINs) from the issuance of Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) for a 50% or 100% reallocation. Biofuel industry stakeholders were near-unanimous in calling for a 100% reallocation, saying anything less than full allocation would undermine RFS program integrity and partial reallocation would jeopardize ongoing and planned investments. 

While soybean basis is quiet locally, areas that have concluded harvest are seeing decent rallies. Not surprising with corn harvest in full swing in said areas. There are rumors PNW basis is popping some the last few days. We will have to wait and see if this is just a one off or if there is something brewing with exports. 

CZ25 -1.25 

SX25 -12.25 

Atch -40Z 

CGB -45Z 

AGP -55X 

KC -25X 

Corn Export Sales have had a good start to the marketing year.  This week’s report was stronger than expected at 75.7 million bushels sold vs trade guesses of 39.4 to 70.9 million bushels. 

Sales are now 5% ahead of the pace needed seasonally to meet the USDA estimates for the year.   

A government shutdown looms ahead of the October 1st deadline.  Regardless of what happens with the shutdown, the September 30th stocks and acres report will be released as scheduled. 

If we think we’re looking at a major reduction in corn acres for next year, we may need to reconsider 

Beans have never gotten within sniffing distance of being a better bet than corn 

Will we lose a bunch of acres in a place like North Dakota?  The yields sound pretty good up there so far 

And with no soybean program, they really have no incentive to plant more of those 

On Sunday, Mexico confirmed a new case of the New World screwworm 

The case was located less than 70 miles from the U.S./Mexico border in Sabinas Hidalgo, Nuevo Leon 

Major automakers are asking the EPA to decrease vehicle emission limits, which would force them produce much more electric vehicles 

A group made up of GM, Toyota, VW, Hyundai, and others are arguing these EV rules set under Biden in 2024 aren’t achievable 

They also stated that challenges with the supply chain, charging infrastructure, market, and affordability make the current standards nearly impossible  

Given the current rules, the EPA predicts that in 2030-2032 between 35% to 56% of new vehicles sold would need to be electric 

Corn basis is in full on harvest mode. Little to no pushes to be had, even with the weather delays we’ve experienced. The next 10 days look to be wide open. Even with bean harvest looming, there seems to be enough corn moving to keep everyone satisfied. 

Export sales were nothing to write home about this week, but that’s not a surprise since China is nowhere to be found 

China booked at least 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans after Argentina put a temporary halt on grain export taxes. 

The move boosts Argentina’s price competitiveness and undercuts U.S. farmers, who are already losing sales due to low prices and the U.S.–China trade war. 

The purchases are for China’s fourth-quarter inventories, a period that normally favors U.S. soybean shipments. 

The loss in Chinese exports has not translated into significantly greater sales to other destinations despite U.S. soybean prices trading at a steep discount to South American origins. Total unshipped export sales to start the new marketing year for soybeans are down 40% YoY with sales to other nations outside of China down 2.2% YoY. 

Early-season export weakness is likely to persist, similar to the 2018/19 trade war when exports never fully recovered. 

China is releasing state soybean reserves and relying on South American supplies, leaving little chance for U.S. sales this year. 

Unlike 2018/19, U.S. domestic crush demand is expanding and helping offset lost exports. 

To fully replace an 18% export drop (as in 2018/19), U.S. crush capacity would need to rise 338 million bushels (+14%) to 2.768 billion bushels. 

On Thursday, President Trump said the US would give proceeds from tariff revenues to farmers to offset the losses from the trade war. Ag secretary Brooke Rollins said they are looking to model the approach taken during the previous Trump/China trade war.  

Severe drought has sharply reduced the Ohio River’s contribution to the Lower Mississippi River, dropping water levels to less than one-fifth of normal and threatening the key corridor that handles 60% of U.S. bulk exports. At the same time, the transportation system is already reshaping itself around weaker Chinese demand, with railroads favoring Gulf routes and alternative markets like Mexico and the EU over traditional Pacific Northwest export channels. Together, persistent low water on the Mississippi and shifting rail dynamics highlight how U.S. grain logistics are being reshaped by both environmental stress and changing global trade flows. 

There are quick ship bids to be had, but it is a matter if new crop bushels can take advantage of them. The need is immediate, so any hot bid will require delivery in the next few days. It appears there will be combines rolling once the fields firm up. Do not expect the early premiums to stick around too long. 

CZ25 -2.75 

SX25 -7.00 

Atch -40Z 

CGB -45Z 

AGP -55X 

KC -25X 

We have rallied almost 50 cents off the lows, largest harvest acres since the 1930s, maybe record yields  

For the first 11 days of the new marketing year, we’ve already shipped 85 mbu of corn 

More than double last year at the same time 

We are going to need this performance to meet USDA’s goal 

We are on track and currently beating last year’s exports to Mexico 

Friday’s report had the expected lower yield number of 186.7, but that wasn’t enough to offset the increase in harvested and planted acres – an increase in production by 72mbu  

Carryout was tightened up a bit as well after they raised exports and lowered ethanol and imports 

Ethanol margins have been trending lower since the first of September, but still at higher levels than what we saw over that past twelve months. 

This week, December corn futures failed to push through and close above key resistance at 429.  Assuming we don’t push through that resistance, look for December corn to maintain its range between 430 and 410.   

Export sales report was decent Thursday morning  

Middle of the road results with Mexico, South Korea and Japan leading the way. 

Yield reports are all over the place, from disappointing, to as expected, and better than expected.  

This mostly goes to expectations are subjective. Overall, yields are good, but the top end was taken off and the southern rust did take away some bushels. 

Quick ship bids continue to drift lower this week as more bushels hit the market. The recent and forecasted rains could provide some support, but once this weather pattern moves through, harvest will most likely finally get going 100%. Hearing reports rail shippers are not having an easy time finding bids for fall trains. The demand is most likely there, but buyers know that it will be easy to source corn the next 60 days. 

Pretty solid NOPA report out Monday 

189.8million bushels crushed, almost six million above the average trade estimate and more than four million above the most optimistic guess -an Aug record by more than 20 mbu. Final Sept-Aug NOPA crush winds up at a record 2.304 bln bu, 130 mln ahead of last season -around a 6% YoY increase, roughly in line with the USDA's total YoY crush estimate. 

Soybean oil stocks were over 50 mln below the average trade guess. Domestic oil use for Aug estimated at just over 2.4 bln lbs, an Aug record by a wide margin. 

Soybean oil jumped higher post-NOPA release on bullish stocks figure, while soybeans cut into pre-report losses with crush way above expectations. Meal gains a bit but still dragging on complex. 

25/26 bean acres were raised 200K, with a 0.1 bpa drop, giving us a 9 mbu increase in production  

New crop crush was raised 15 mbu, with exports losing 20 mbu – resulting in a net 10 mbu increase to the carryout  

They could have cut the export number more but seems like they want to remain positive on the China front, even though demand has already been lost. 

With no Trade Deal on the horizon, it appears more and more likely that we’re going to be seeing some direct farm payments 

With no resolution from the EPA – bean oil had a real rough Wednesday 

Prices were down 2%  

Still just waiting to hear what the decision will be on the biofuel policy on exemptions for small refinery reallocation and the potential 50% RIN credit on imported feedstock 

No real changes in basis. Cargill KC got up and running sooner than planned, which has created a quick ship opportunity, but tough for many to take advantage of with beans not quite ready. If we do get additional rains the start of next week, there could be some premiums available. If so, they most likely will not last long.