Weekly Grain Market Update – 10/2/2026
Weekly Change
CZ26 -29'4
SX26 -38'4
Corn
Corn took a hard hit this week following Wednesday’s USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report. September 1 corn stocks came in at 2.095 billion bushels, roughly 173 million bushels above USDA’s previous 1.922 billion bushel estimate.
USDA did lower the 2025 crop by about 57 million bushels, but the adjustment came from 310,000 fewer harvested acres rather than a lower yield. Yield was left unchanged at 186.5 bpa.
The bigger adjustment came on feed and residual use. Implied 2025/26 feed and residual usage came in at 6.117 billion bushels, about 233 million below the 6.350 billion bushels USDA had previously been using.
That additional supply changes the balance-sheet picture. Even if USDA lowers the current crop yield in next week’s report, corn stocks could still remain considerably more comfortable than the market was expecting just a week ago.
Funds entered the week holding a very large net-long corn position, leaving the market vulnerable once the fundamental story changed. Estimates suggest heavy fund selling followed the stocks report.
Export demand was another disappointment this week. Sales totaled only 536,000 MT, or about 21.1 million bushels, a marketing-year low and below expectations.
China’s decision to reduce tariffs on U.S. corn and several other agricultural products is positive for market access, but there has still been no major Chinese corn purchase commitment.
Harvest is nationally near a normal pace, but progress varies considerably by region. Iowa has been notably behind while Illinois has moved much faster.
Weather looks much more harvest-friendly after the recent rain. Forecasts are calling for an extended stretch of dry and mild weather, which should allow harvest to accelerate quickly.
December corn has now fallen roughly 50 cents from its September highs and briefly traded below $5.00. The market will now be looking toward the October 9 Crop Production/WASDE report for the next major fundamental catalyst.
Soybeans
Soybeans had a rough week as well, although their fundamental story is different from corn.
China agreed to tariff relief on a number of U.S. agricultural products but left the additional 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans in place. That keeps U.S. beans less competitive for Chinese private crushers and leaves much of the buying dependent on state-directed purchases.
Despite the trade concerns, soybean export demand remains considerably better than corn. Weekly sales totaled 1.034 MMT, or about 38 million bushels, and current commitments remain well ahead of last year’s pace.
Wednesday’s USDA report was mildly supportive to beans. September 1 stocks were 315 million bushels, below both trade expectations and USDA’s previous estimate.
The bigger near-term risk may be positioning. Soybean futures open interest reached a new record high, while managed money is also carrying historically large long positions.
That creates the potential for exaggerated downside moves if bullish traders begin heading for the exits at the same time.
Soybean harvest has been delayed in portions of the western Corn Belt, which has helped create extremely strong processor basis levels in some areas. That strength could fade quickly once several consecutive dry harvest days allow bean movement to accelerate.
Early yield reports have been mixed, but there has not yet been enough evidence to convince the market that USDA’s current soybean production estimate is significantly too high.
South American weather is also moving back into focus as Brazilian soybean planting gets underway. Current forecasts favor widespread rainfall, which should generally support planting progress.