March 3, 2026

CK26 +4.75 

SK26 +19.75 

Atch -11K 

CGB -30K 

AGP -50K 

KC -35K 

Trump is officially set to go to China on March 31st through April 2nd  

I think most eyes in our industry are on the additional 8mmt China has been linked to importing from the U.S. 

That would be great, but 8mmt may not be just soybeans, it feels like everybody is of the opinion it will be strictly beans 

Seeing other grains involved should be considered 

AND there may not be any commitment by China at all 

Bean basis at the Gulf is reflecting a lack of optimism of the 8 mmt of Chinese demand 

A nice improvement in corn conditions over the past week for Argentina  

Things are honestly looking pretty darn good, especially how doom and gloom all the reports were a few weeks ago 

And each week ratings have been above average  

Beans saw improvement as well 

As many have heard I’m sure, Cargill and ADM have halted soybean shipments to China for the time being  

We have heard a couple reasons for this 

Cargoes have had issues with quarantine seed and chemical contamination 

China has unexpectedly become stricter on import inspections 

Brazilian export houses realized they are not going to meet quality requirements and did not ship said vessels  

The media and reporters saw this and speculated to the public 

Either way, one would expect this issue to get resolved before China needs quick ship U.S. beans 

Brazilian reports are sayng it’s going from bad to worse down in Brazil 

The system is legitimately plugged and it’s worse than anything we’ve ever experienced in the US 

The banking systems doesn’t want to tolerate all of these margin calls because the cash market on the interior is either flat or declining in the face of such a strong market 

The lines are being measured in days, not hours 

Beans are being left in the field or piled 

Piling beans in a rain forest climate?  No Thank You 

Can you imagine such a thing like this, and having to pay 19% interest rates on borrowed money? 

The crop is getting quite a bit smaller  

The safrinha corn crop is also getting smaller due to all of these delays 

Corn export sales were nothing to write home about 

Within expectations and keeping us in line with our pace 

It was also the usual destination suspects, but with Japan leading instead of Mexico 

Soybeans were nothing to brag about but in line with expectations  

With 16.8 mbu old crop sold (est. 9.2-29.4 mbu) and 0.3 mbu new crop 

Commodities drive the economy! Otherwise you have trouble explaining the markets of the past two weeks. The supply of commodities hasn’t changed much over the past couple of weeks, but the flow and distribution of some commodities has changed. Few people thought it possible that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and products pass, along with an even greater share of fertilizer, but Iran did so. Iran didn’t use a naval blockade to do it, but it did use a stronger weapon – fear. 

Roughly a fifth of the world’s exported crude oil passed through the Strait prior to the war. That number is essentially near zero now. Saudi Arabia is redirecting supplies to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, where 4.5 mbpd can be loaded, up about 2 mbpd from previous levels, lowering the deficit to roughly 14 mbpd. A coordinated release of reserve supplies from various nations can reduce that number just below 10 mbpd. 

The latest threat is that Iran would mine the Strait of Hormuz. That’s possible, but keep in mind that crude oil exports are the life blood of Iran. Mines don’t detect the color of flags of approaching ships – they’re indiscriminate. As such, Iran has incentive not to mine the Strait until/unless it believes that its defeat is a foregone conclusion. Then it might decide to do as much damage as possible before going down. 

To indicate the extent to which these prices rise and fall with the tensions in the middle east, on Tuesday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted that the US Navy was escorting an oil vessel through the Strait of Hormuz.  The post was taken down creating extreme volatility in oil. 

Grains were steadier than oil but still saw some significant price swings. 

Corn basis is seeing some softening this week with the futures market moving higher. Cash grain is moving and keeping the pipeline full. Demand continues to be strong but there is also a big pile to get moved before fall. 

Bean basis is steady to lower. Like corn, beans continue to move and a big inverse to new crop will keep commercial beans moving. Processor margins are good but they only need so much so they will bid accordingly.