December 19, 2025

CH26 +3.5 

SF26 -25.75 

Atch -10Z 

CGB -30Z 

AGP -55F 

KC -30F 

It appears that the risk of corn breaking the range on the low side was averted this week after building some momentum on Wednesday and Thursday’s gains which was seen as quite positive by many technical traders 
 

Rumors were circulating on Wednesday that China was in the market for 6–7 cargoes of corn, but I would not get too excited, given that they just harvested a record 11.81 billion bushel corn crop in 2025 and Chinese hog margins leave a lot to be desired. 

Corn received some strong numbers from this week’s DOE ethanol report.  

Ethanol stocks declined modestly to 22.35 million barrels, down from 22.5 million barrels the previous week.  

Ethanol production topped expectations for the week, setting a new weekly record with production at 1,131K barrels/day, up from 1,105K barrels/day last week 

Grain sorghum export sales were strong for the week ending November 27 as the USDA catches up after the partial shutdown. Milo sales totaled 12.6 million bushels, with China and unknown buyers taking about 11 million. Despite China’s renewed interest, the flooded western Kansas milo market hasn’t seen much lift yet—but if it does, it could help perk up the flat corn market, too. 

Corn basis has seen a little bit of a pop for nearby delivery in some spots, but there is also a lot of bushels moving. Some processors are fairly covered through January so I would not expect a big basis move to the upside anytime soon. Saying that, minus a board rally, it is unlikely basis backs off with the good demand we currently have. 

This week has been a decent week for soybean flash sales to China/Unknown as they have purchased nearly 750k metric tons of soybeans for delivery this year, but the market couldn’t care less as it works to put in its 12th out of 15 sessions in the red. 

Estimating the funds' positions is always a challenging task, but recent estimates for soybeans were significantly off the mark.  

Funds were heavy buyers in anticipation of the China trade deal. 

The trade had projected managed money to be long about 149,000 contracts, but the actual figure came in closer to 230,000—approaching their high-water mark from 2012.  

This aggressive buying helped support the soybean rally in late October and November, but it now leaves the funds with ample selling power moving forward. 

On Tuesday, January Soybeans filled the gap created on October 27th after the China trade deal was released, but that didn’t stop them as they continued to trade lower, eyeing the lows from the beginning of harvest. 

It’s hard for investors to justify a sustained rally when Brazil is on the cusp of yet another record soybean harvest, and the EPA continues to delay announcement of the final regulations for the U.S. biofuel program 

Growing conditions in South America are mixed, with Brazil generally cooler than normal and Argentina near typical seasonal temperatures, aside from some variation around Buenos Aires. 

Rainfall is mostly favorable, with central and western Brazil and northern Argentina seeing good moisture, while central and eastern Argentina remain on the dry side. 

Moisture buildup in major growing areas of Brazil is certainly a boon, as dryness had been a concern in previous weeks 

No big changes in basis this week. Last week there was some pushes for January delivery bushels, but bushels moved and the pushes have gone away. Other processors were already covered for January so I would not expect any big moves soon.