CZ25 +3.50 

SX25 +10.25 

Atch -38Z 

CGB -35Z 

AGP -55X 

KC -25X 

The Corn Belt just logged its driest August since 2013, and it’s having an effect on Mississippi River levels again, forcing lighter barge drafts, higher freight costs, and thus, weaker river basis. That’s a bad combo for U.S. exports just as we head into harvest. 

A decline in barge transport efficiency would be problematic with the large corn and soybean harvest quickly approaching and shifting rail use from slowed PNW soybean exports. 

About 60% of U.S. grain exports are shipped by barge on the Mississippi River; 

Due to the lack of soybean exports to China, PNW terminals are expected to shift to exporting corn to Japan and South Korea, where export sales are currently approaching record highs. 

Wednesday’s ethanol report showed a rise in both stocks and production 

Stocks rose 273K to 22,549K barrels 

Production rose 30K to 1,105K barrels/day 

It’s been 2.5 weeks since our last corn flash sale, although we remain competitive in the global market. 

Export sales for the week fell by 11 mbu compared to the previous week, with no new crop sales reported. 

Overall, sales came in well below weekly estimates 

Besides a few quick ship bids, there is not much going on for basis changes. More combines get in the fields each day and with the warmer temps ahead, corn will start drying down quicker and take the quick ship bids away.  

Thursday’s export sales report showed just 19.9 mbu of old-crop sales for the 25/26 marketing year, landing at the low end of expectations (14.7–58.8 mbu). That’s only about one-third of both the three-year average and last year’s total for the same week. 

Today at 11 a.m. CT, tune in for the monthly WASDE. We'll see if USDA trims yields as expected and whether demand gets adjusted, especially with China out of the market. 

Oilseed crushers quickly responded to wider crush margins in July and accelerated the crush pace.  

August crush margins fell sharply because of a drop in soyoil prices and higher soybean prices, which may have caused the August crush pace to slow although NOPA hasn’t released the August numbers yet. 

Stronger biofuel usage and faster soymeal exports are needed to support crush margins as crush capacity expands. 

The new Mitchell, SD bean processing plant opened its doors on Tuesday with AGP David City, NE not too far behind as well 

Brazilian farmers are set to begin planting their 25/26 soybean crop this month  

They are expected to expand their planted areas for the 19th consecutive year  

“They aren’t making more of it”…except in Brazil…  

Over the past 18 years, they have expanded soybean area by nearly 130% 

(Bloomberg) China imported a record volume of soybeans for August to build a buffer against possible shortages as a protracted trade war with the US — its second-largest supplier — drags on. 

The world’s biggest soybean importer purchased 12.28 million tons in August, the highest ever recorded for the month, shoring up local availability before US supplies begin to dominate the global market. 

China has traditionally sourced a large share of its soybean imports from the US, but ongoing trade tensions have pushed it to favor Brazil. The recent purchases reflect a strategic move to reduce reliance on the US shipments ahead of the export season that’s expected to peak in the coming months. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and others next week in Madrid 

They are expected to continue their discussions on trade, economic and national security issues  

Don’t expect a resolution any time soon. 

Basis quiet this week. Processors do not seem to have a need to get coverage going into harvest. Cargill KC is still down, although they are now saying they will start receiving beans again the 18th, which is a few days earlier than previously scheduled. We still expect a big storage issue for soybeans this fall.