January 16, 2026

CZ25 -23.25 

SH26 -10.75 

Atch -8H 

CGB -30H 

AGP -40H 

KC -5H 

On Monday the USDA released their highly anticipated January grain supply and demand report. The January report is where the USDA finalizes yields and harvested acres from the last harvest.   

Most anticipated corn yields to come down a few bushels per acre and exports to be increased since we have been running well ahead of pace. 

The numbers the USDA released were a complete shock to the market. 

2025/26 corn carry in up 19 million bushels thanks to an old crop feed demand cut. 

2025 corn yield was increased 0.5 bushels per acre with harvested area up 1.3 mln ac, meaning production rises another 269 mbu to a whopping 17.021 bln bu. 

New crop feed use was bumped up 100 mbu to a massive 6.2 bln bu. 

Overall carryout is up 198 mbu from last month -on the very high end of trade estimates. 

Dec 1 stocks were on the high end of expectations as well.  

World production up 13 MMT on 6+ MMT increases for both the US and China; overall ending stocks up 11.8 MMT this month. 

Interesting to note, the planted acres hardly changed at 98.8 mln ac so the harvested vs planted acres came to 92.41%, the highest level since 1965 only behind 2007’s 92.51% 

The market reacted much as you’d expect after the curveball the USDA threw, with corn closing down 23, its worst day since the June 30, 2023 report day. 

Some have noted that the 2024 harvest may have been underreported, and with stocks building, this year’s numbers look like an adjustment to account for that. 

In news not about the report Monday, we had an export inspection report on Monday that looked pretty good  

Up 6.6 mbu from last week and the usual suspects showed up to participate 

Wednesday’s DOE Ethanol Report showed stocks increasing to 24.5 million barrels  

Up from 23.7 million barrels the week before  

Continuing along with the normal seasonal stock build up  

Ethanol production also increased to 1,196K barrels/day – much higher than expected  

This is up from 1,098K barrels/day a week ago  

A sharp increase week over week and smashing the previous weekly record  

The previous all time weekly record was 1,131K barrels/day 

Current ethanol margins continue in the red 

Export sales were ok this week – rebounded off of last week’s lows and made decent progress, just not too exciting 

Corn basis has a little bit of a stronger feeling compared to last week but there still isn’t really much movement. Monday’s report has left farmer selling quiet so we would not be surprised if we eventually get some improvement. But with a 2.2b carryout, basis rallies will be met with selling in a big way. 

Soybeans couldn’t escape the wrath of the USDA in Monday's report either although it wasn’t quite as bearish as the corn numbers. 

The 2025 yield was left unchanged at 53 bu/ac 

Harvested acres increased 100k acres to 80.4 mln ac; supply increased 9 mbu on both production and carryin. 

New Crop soy crush was bumped up another 15 mbu but exports were cut by 60 mbu, leaving overall ending stocks up 60 mbu on the month at 350 miln bu. 

World production is up 3 MMT this month on an equal increase for Brazil, changes minimal otherwise. 

'25/26 global carryout was increased 2.0 MMT to 124.41MMT. 

Beans fared slightly better than corn after the release of the report on Monday closing down 12 on the day. 

December NOPA crush came in at 225.0 mbu, just a bit above the average estimate and above the November 216.0 mbu and last December’s 206.6 mbu.  

This makes the 2nd highest month of NOPA crush on record, only behind Oct’s 227.65 mbu 

Cumulative Sep-Dec crush stands at 866.5 mbu, 90 mbu ahead of last year’s pace 

Soybean oil stocks were at 1642 million lbs, below the average guess of 1686 but up from 1513 million last month and 1236 million a year ago 

Tuesday’s soybean auction in China sold out 1.14 mmts of old imported beans  

It was said that strong buying was driven by concerns about delays in early-season Brazilian shipments  

On the topic of Chinese bean purchases… 

In December China imported 8.04 million tons of beans – above the 7.94 million tons last year 

But nearly 1 million tons lower than the 5-yr average  

With the national reserve auctions filling up some of the crusher needs, would expect the next couple of months to be lower than a year ago 

Here is a reminder of Chinese crush margins 

December NOPA crush came in at 225.0 mbu, just a bit above the average estimate  

And above the 216.0 mbu in Nov and 206.6 mbu last December  

This makes the 2nd highest month of NOPA crush on record, only behind Oct’s 227.65 mbu 

Cumulative Sep-Dec crush stands at 866.5 mbu, 90 mbu ahead of last year’s pace 

While we are at it, today was also Export Sales Report Day  

Beans coming in at 75.8 mbu, well above the highest of estimates (29.4-66.1 mbu est.)  

We still remain well below the USDA’s seasonal pace  

China was the top buyer again 

Bean basis has been on the move higher. It started ahead of Monday’s report and has continued. Lack of farmer movement is the biggest reason. No major changes in margins justifying it. Saying that, do not expect for basis get a big rally going because there are bushels moving and most likely the carryout will continue to grow.