Weekly Grain Market Update – 11/6/2026

Weekly Change

CZ26 -6'6

SF27 -47'2

Corn 

• Corn continues to struggle to gain much traction as harvest winds down across the country. Fund liquidation has been a major factor in the recent weakness, with managed money selling more than 333,000 corn contracts over a six-week period. December futures have given back much of the rally we saw heading into harvest.
• Export demand provided some encouraging news this week. Mexico purchased 1.73 million metric tons (68 million bushels) of U.S. corn on Monday, one of the larger sales we've seen recently. Weekly export sales totaled roughly 51 million bushels, keeping demand relatively steady despite the recent decline in futures.
• Ethanol production has also been a bright spot. Weekly production increased to 1.143 million barrels per day, up 25,000 barrels from the previous week. That marks the fifth consecutive weekly increase and the second-highest weekly production level on record. Ethanol stocks also declined slightly to 24.4 million barrels.
• StoneX released its November production estimate this week, raising the national corn yield by 1 bushel per acre from its October estimate. Total production is now projected at 16.203 billion bushels, compared to 16.115 billion last month. Larger production estimates have added to the pressure on an already struggling market.
• The focus now shifts to Tuesday's USDA report. Yield expectations vary considerably, with roughly a 10-bushel-per-acre range between private estimates. There has been talk of disappointing yields in portions of Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, while other areas have performed better than expected.

Soybeans 

• Soybeans have had another difficult week, with January futures breaking below the $12.00 level and their 200-day moving average. Heavy fund selling, weakness in soybean oil, and expectations for a larger U.S. crop have all contributed to the recent decline.
• Export demand continues to be one of the stronger parts of the soybean market. Weekly export sales totaled 53.5 million bushels, with commitments running 76% ahead of last year's pace. China was once again the largest buyer, purchasing 437,000 metric tons and taking over another 442,000 metric tons previously listed as unknown destinations.
• We also saw some additional export business outside of China, including a sale of 167,000 metric tons to Spain. U.S. soybeans have become more competitive in the export market following the recent price decline, although that advantage could begin to fade as Brazil gets closer to harvest.
• StoneX released another large soybean production estimate this week, projecting a record national yield of 55 bushels per acre. Their estimate puts U.S. soybean ending stocks near 480 million bushels, considerably higher than earlier expectations. The potential for a larger crop has been a major concern heading into next week's USDA report.
• South America is becoming an increasingly important part of the market. StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 184.95 million metric tons, while Rabobank is estimating 178 million. That's a significant difference between forecasts, and weather over the next several months will be critical in determining the final crop size. Brazil is also expected to begin harvesting some of its early-planted soybeans in February.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday, November 10, brings the next USDA WASDE report, which will include updated U.S. production, yield, and ending stocks estimates. The market will also be watching fund positioning, export demand, and South American weather. Outside markets have been volatile following the midterm elections, with changing energy prices and a stronger U.S. dollar adding another layer of uncertainty to the grain markets.

Have a great weekend!

Written by 

Spencer Macke, Grain Originator

(913) 991-2815

Reach out with any questions. Thanks for reading.