Weekly Grain Market Update – 8/21/26

Weekly Change

CU26 +23'6

CZ26 +24'4

SX26 +44'6

CORN

• December corn pushed above $5 this week as disappointing Pro Farmer Crop Tour results brought additional buyers into the market.

• Crop Tour corn yields were below last year across every major state: SD 149.1, NE 163.6, IN 183.5, IL 184.2, IA 194.0 and MN 199.0 bpa. Iowa and Minnesota remained above their three-year averages, but the eastern Corn Belt was more disappointing.

• National corn conditions declined one point to 60% good/excellent, which is below the five-year average. Indiana and Minnesota ratings each dropped five points during the week.

• Export demand remains supportive. Weekly corn inspections reached 1.911 MMT, exceeding the top end of trade expectations. Mexico and Japan were the leading destinations.

• Ethanol demand softened for the week. Production declined to 1.089 million barrels per day, stocks increased to 25.1 million barrels and estimated corn use fell to 107.8 million bushels.

• Black Sea export disruptions remain a source of support, but cheaper Argentine corn and rising Brazilian exports could capture some displaced demand.

• December corn is encountering resistance around $5 after gaining more than 30 cents since the USDA report. Crop concerns offer support, but recent rains may still add yield. This is a good opportunity to review new-crop coverage and consider rewarding the rally.

SOYBEANS

• November soybeans rallied into the $12.40 area, supported by lower crop ratings, disappointing Crop Tour results, strong export demand and tight processor supplies.

• Soybean pod counts were generally below last year. Excessive rainfall hurt soybean prospects in parts of the eastern Midwest, while some western production areas continue to show drought stress. Final yields will depend heavily on late-season weather, pod fill and seed size.

• National soybean conditions declined one point to 61% good/excellent, which is now below the five-year average.

• New-crop soybean export sales totaled 63.3 million bushels, with China continuing to purchase U.S. beans. China has imported 62.16 MMT of soybeans so far in 2026, slightly ahead of last year.

• July soybean crush totaled 216.6 million bushels—below expectations, but still above June and well above last July. Soybean oil stocks were lower than expected, providing additional support to the soybean complex.

• Processors remain aggressive as they try to secure the remaining old-crop supply. Strong basis levels and premiums may disappear quickly once harvest begins, so producers holding old-crop beans should be checking current bids.

• With November beans above $12 and approaching longer-term resistance, this is another opportunity to review sales rather than waiting for the market to find the exact high.