May 22, 2026

Corn: CN26 +11 CZ26 +8

Soybeans: SN26 +19 SX26 +18'2

Local Bids:
Atch: -6N
CGB: -30N
AGP: -20N
KC: +20

• Corn Market Summary

  • Corn had a very choppy week with the market trading almost entirely off headlines tied to U.S./China trade, outside markets, and early-season U.S. crop conditions.
  • Late last week, corn broke hard as traders were disappointed that the Trump/Xi meeting did not immediately produce clear, confirmed ag purchase details.
  • A lot of the recent buying in corn had been tied to the idea that China may step back in for meaningful U.S. ag purchases. When the meeting ended with few specifics, funds and specs quickly liquidated length.
  • The market then bounced sharply after the White House released a fact sheet saying China had committed to buying at least $17 billion per year of U.S. ag products in 2026, 2027, and 2028.
  • That headline was supportive, but the market is still struggling with the fact that China has not confirmed specific commodity volumes or dollar amounts from their side.
  • China did confirm a broader tariff-reduction framework, which could help U.S. ag products compete better into China, but the details are still vague.
  • Because of that, the market has been swinging hard from day to day depending on whether traders feel more optimistic or more skeptical about Chinese demand.
  • Corn export demand had some supportive news this week. USDA reported 2025/26 corn export sales at 2.125 MMT, which was above the top end of trade expectations.
  • South Korea was also active buying feed corn, with multiple purchases noted through the week. Some of that business may still be sourced from South America, but it does show end-user demand is active.
  • One concern is that U.S. corn may be starting to lose some of its seasonal advantage in the global export lineup as South America becomes more competitive.
  • Planting progress in the U.S. has been moving along well, and the overall start to the growing season has been favorable.
  • Rain may slow planters in some areas, but the moisture is mostly viewed as beneficial for newly planted corn.
  • Outside markets added another layer of volatility, with crude oil, the U.S. dollar, bonds, and equities all moving around due to broader macro concerns and the Iran situation.
  • Managed money is still estimated to be holding a large net-long corn position, so positioning ahead of the long holiday weekend could create more volatility.
  • Bottom line: corn has demand optimism if the China story becomes real, but until actual purchases or clearer details show up, rallies may be hard to sustain. Weather is not threatening enough yet to add much risk premium, so the market is stuck balancing export hope against a good early crop start.

  Soybean Market Summary

  • Soybeans followed the same general pattern as corn this week, with sharp losses, a big bounce, and then renewed pressure as the market tried to sort out the U.S./China trade story.
  • Beans sold off hard late last week as traders liquidated long positions after the Trump/Xi meeting failed to deliver immediate, confirmed soybean purchase details.
  • The market had built in optimism that China would confirm new demand, but instead traders were left with broad language and not much concrete detail.
  • The White House later said China would purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. ag products from 2026–2028, in addition to previous soybean commitments, which helped beans rally sharply early in the week.
  • July beans gained 36 cents on Tuesday and November beans gained 30 cents, showing how quickly the market can react when export optimism returns.
  • However, the rally faded as China still has not confirmed the specific purchase numbers, and traders remain cautious after going through the first trade war.
  • China did say it agreed to include ag products in a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework, but again, the market is still waiting on actual soybean sales or more concrete confirmation.
  • Weekly soybean export sales were a supportive input, coming in at 524 TMT combined, near the upper end of expectations.
  • China’s April soybean imports from the U.S. were also up sharply from last year, more than doubling year-over-year, although Brazil still shipped more beans to China during the month.
  • Domestic crush remains one of the strongest supportive factors for soybeans.
  • April NOPA crush was a record for the month, even though the daily crush pace slowed from March due to seasonal maintenance downtime.
  • Crush margins remain very strong, with board crush margins recently near record levels and cash crush margins also very profitable.
  • Strong crush demand should continue to support domestic soybean usage, especially with soybean oil and renewable fuel demand still important to the market.
  • Soybean oil was pressured at times by risk-off trade in the energy markets, especially when crude oil backed off on Iran negotiation optimism.
  • Soybean meal also pulled back from recent highs, which added pressure to the product side of the market.
  • Brazil remains a major bearish factor in the background. Their soybean crop is record large, exports are projected very high, and ending stocks are expected to reach the highest level in several years.
  • Brazil’s large supply gives China plenty of alternatives, which makes it harder for the U.S. soybean market to rally unless China follows through with actual U.S. purchases.
  • Domestic soybean basis was mostly steady through the week, while Gulf bids were steady to slightly firmer at times.
  • Bottom line: soybeans have strong domestic crush support and potential upside if China demand becomes real, but the market needs actual export confirmation. Without that, Brazil’s large crop and uncertain outside markets could keep rallies choppy and difficult to hold.

  Big Picture

  • The main theme this week was uncertainty.
  • Markets are trying to price three major factors at once: possible Chinese demand, the Iran conflict and energy market volatility, and a favorable start to the U.S. growing season.
  • The China story is supportive if it turns into real purchases, but so far the market has more headlines than confirmed business.
  • Strong corn export sales and strong soybean crush are both positive demand signals.
  • Good planting progress and non-threatening U.S. weather are limiting the amount of weather premium the market is willing to add.
  • Until China confirms more details or actual sales are announced, expect the market to stay headline-driven and volatile.