Weekly Grain Update


October 24, 2025

Weekly futures changes: 

  • CZ25  

  • SX25  

Nearby Basis Bids: 

  • Atch –30Z 

  • CGB -45Z 

  • AGP -60X 

  • KC -35X 

Notes: 

Corn 

  • The deadline for our new Enhanced Plus contract offering, through our partners from Quantum Hedging, is November 1. If you would like to learn more about this contract, please reach out to a merchandiser or originator. This initial program is designed primarily for on-farm bushels for a summer delivery timeframe. 

  • U.S. ethanol output jumped to 1.112 mbpd, the highest in 19 weeks and just shy of record levels, though still below the pace needed to meet USDA’s 5.6 B bu corn-for-ethanol target. Stocks fell sharply to 21.9 M bbl, a 51-week low, as exports stayed firm near 125 kbpd. Tightening inventories and steady demand offer a mildly bullish tone for ethanol and corn. 

  • Corn spreads on the rise yet again this week  

  • The CZ:CH found a new 6-month high today at –12’4 

  • We are now running out of time for the November WASDE crop report to occur on time. Failure to reopen the government by next week would suggest that the November report might need to be delayed, or even cancelled, if we fail to get the government reopened soon. USDA has never cancelled back-to-back reports.      

  • Keep an eye on the world’s 2nd largest corn producer 

  • Weather is not good 

  • Kyle Tapley of Vaisala X Weather reported earlier this week that the North China Plain and N Yangtze Valley has experienced 250-750% of normal rainfall over the past month 

  • Some dry weather is in the forecast  

  •  

  • These rains are significantly impacting harvest and storage of corn 

  • Nearby basis was a mixed bag this week. The facilities with available space are looking towards post harvest and keeping the bushels coming. The facilities without space are backing off. Ultimately, we are looking at an appreciating market as harvest begins to wind down. Farmer movement will most likely determine how much basis rallies. Thanksgiving and the Christmas are right around the corner and end users will want to make sure they have coverage. 

Soybeans 

  • CONAB is projecting Brazil to produce 177 million metric tons of soybeansThat's mmt higher than their record last year and 58 mmt higher than US production estimates this year.   

  • We mentioned it a few weeks ago but it’s worth revisiting, China’s official September import data showed no US beans 

  • This is the first time for any month since Nov 2018 

  • September set a new all-time high for Brazilian soybean shipments to China, reaching 10.961 MMT.  

  • China has imported 10+ MMT from Brazil for 5 months in a row 

  • The growing share of China’s September beans sourced from Brazil is concerning as it can be very hard to get back market share once the shift is made.   
     

  • In its latest monthly update, Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture raised its estimate for 2024/25 soybean exports from 9.0 million tons to 12.3 million, marking the highest volume since 2009/10, when shipments reached 13.4 million tons. The new projection represents a 169% year-over-year increase from the 4.5 million tons exported in 2023/24. 

  • President Trump said this week “I think we’ll make a deal” – referring to himself and Chinese President Xi when they meet in South Korea next week. Grain trade optimism has managed to send the November CBOT soybean contract to more than a one-month high despite the overall lack of fundamental data available 

  • Currently the U.S. is the market for soybeans on the global market (except for China) and that was validated in this week’s solid inspections report coming in at 54.2 mbu, although we continue to fall behind the pace needed to reach the USDA’s export estimates. 
     

  • Some traders and market analysts are estimating that the US is discounted enough to be able to sell beans into China inclusive of tariffs and be about the same price as Brazil 

  • Which might go to show a thing or two about how Supply finds Demand even when the government intervenes 

  • It also might teach us a thing or two about communists 

  • Communists do math differently 

  • Soybean basis is showing a positive tone as we move into the tail end of harvest. Like corn, processors would like to see the beans coming with the carries we have. Any bean they can buy now is cheaper than what it will be later. Saying that, the consensus is farmers have stored beans in a big way and will not look to part ways with their positions right away. So basis will have to do the work to get bushels moving, whether it be from the farmer or commercials. 

October 17, 2025 

Weekly futures changes: 

  • CZ25  +10'2

  • SX25  +10'6

Nearby Basis Bids: 

  • Atch -38Z 

  • CGB -40Z 

  • AGP -60X 

  • KC -35X 

Notes: 

Corn 

  • The corn board has had a nice week getting back over the 420 CZ area. 

  • In September, we got to 431^2 a couple of times and stalled out 

  • Export Inspections are the one report the industry still gets during the shutdown.  At the low end for corn estimates today 

  • Corn export inspections were 44.5 million bushels, vs estimates of 47.2 to 65.9 million 

  • 10-week average is 56 million bushels 

  • For the crop year, 4% ahead of the seasonal pace to meet USDA export estimate 

  • Ethanol report from the DOE was out Thursday, but not too exciting 

  • Total stocks were down 92k barrels  

  • Production and demand were both slightly up 

  • Corn spreads continue to come in (meaning less carry) 

  • Some of this could be the crop does indeed continue to get smaller 

  • A lot of it has to do with lack of farmer selling and the market needs to help to incentivize growers to feed the market 

  • Basis is steady to a touch firmer. Nothing crazy but with bean harvest taking the priority, end users/shuttle loaders will want the corn to continue to flow. The shift to post harvest basis will happen soon. Keep an eye on basis as there may be opportunities going to into the holidays. 

Soybeans 

  • China imported 12.87 mmt or 473 mbu of beans in September  

  • The 2nd largest for any month on record and up 13% YoY  

  • Jan-Sept Chinese bean imports are pegged at 86.2 mmt, up over 5% on the year 

  • NOPA knocked another one out of the park Wednesday 

  • Coming in well above the estimated range at 197.9 mbu for the month of September (est. 176.5-195.0 mbu 

  • Soy oil stocks came in just above the average guess at 1243 mil lbs 

  • But was at a 9-month low 

  • We will take all of the extra crush demand we can at this point 

  • President Trump on Tuesday called China “economically hostile” for not buying American soybeans and threatened to halt imports of cooking oil and other products from the country in retaliation. 

  • Basis has signs of life as crushers look to keep full post harvest. If I were a crusher and looking at big carries, the cheapest bean they can own is right now. But with carries in the board, basis will have to entice sellers to weigh the option of carrying or pitching. Saying that, a board rally post harvest can bring a lot of beans to market and without an export program the crushers may not have to work too hard to originate beans. And crush margins are not enough at the moment to get processors excited to go out and put on a big position of ownership. 

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October 10, 2025

Weekly futures changes: 

  • CZ25 -3.75 

  • SX25 -5.25 

Nearby Basis Bids: 

  • Atch -40Z 

  • CGB -45Z 

  • AGP -60X 

  • KC -45X 

Notes: 

Corn 

  • We do get Export Inspections from the USDA despite the government shutdown. 

  • Corn was strong at 63.0 million bushels, vs range of guesses at 55.1 to 65 million bushels. 

  • 10-week average 55.3 million bushels 

  • Now 3% ahead of the seasonal pace needed to meet the USDA estimated exports for the year. 

  • Ethanol margins continue to impress, especially considering they are nearly $0.40 above last year at this time 

  • USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report released last week showed a much slower-than-expected usage pace for corn in the June 1 to Sept. 1 period. Total corn disappearance in the last quarter of the 2024/25 marketing year fell to 3.111 billion bushels, down 122 million bushels or 3.8% YoY, despite a robust export program. The drag on corn demand came from weaker domestic usage. 

  • Corn used for ethanol production is eroding as producers on the Plains use more grain sorghum. Feed demand, which does not have the benefit of transparency from regular reports like export inspections or ethanol production, is also showing signs of weakness. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report recently showed a 1% YoY drop in hogs and pigs, the number of cattle on feed is down 1% YoY, and the total laying flock is down 1% YoY. 

  • The continued rumors around direct payments look to be on hold until the government is open again. 

  • Many were expecting an announcement this week with details of the program, but Secretary Rollins stated nothing will be announced until the shutdown is over. 

  • Corn basis is still muted. Plenty of bushels are moving, even though soybean harvest will be back in full swing in the next couple of days. Nothing is moving on deferred months either. Expect post harvest appreciation but how much will be determined by the farmers’ selling mentality. 

 

Soybeans 

  • For the week ending 10/2, 28.2 mbu of beans inspected 

  • Near the high end of estimates (22.0-29.4 mbu) 

  • Beans fall short of the USDA’s seasonal pace by 10 mbu 

  • Analysts on average put bean harvest at 39% complete, which would be up 19% from last week but behind last year’s 47% at this time 

  • Brazil had its best Sept for soybean exports on record, with 7.341 MMT exported  

  • Which would be 43.4% higher than the previous 5-year average for the month 

  • So in conclusion, the US/China trade war is a little game called: Brazil wins!  

  • But I do think it is worth mentioning, although it would be nice to have some trade flow and sales on with the world’s largest soybean importer, our biggest problem is that we have a global oversupply of the oilseed 

  • Soybean disappearance last quarter improved over last year’s pace. Total implied soybean usage for the Jun. 1 to Sep. 1 period rose to 691.2 million bushels, up an impressive 10.1% or 63.6 million bushels YoY with expanded crush capacity making up for slower soybean exports. 

  • The EPA held a timely, virtual public hearing Oct. 1 regarding its supplemental proposed rule for Renewable Fuel Standard requirements for 2026 and 2027. The hearing specifically focused on the reallocation of exempted renewable identification numbers (RINs) from the issuance of Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) for a 50% or 100% reallocation. Biofuel industry stakeholders were near-unanimous in calling for a 100% reallocation, saying anything less than full allocation would undermine RFS program integrity and partial reallocation would jeopardize ongoing and planned investments. 

  • While soybean basis is quiet locally, areas that have concluded harvest are seeing decent rallies. Not surprising with corn harvest in full swing in said areas. There are rumors PNW basis is popping some the last few days. We will have to wait and see if this is just a one off or if there is something brewing with exports. 

September 26, 2025

Weekly futures changes: 

  • CZ25 -1.25 

  • SX25 -12.25 

Nearby Basis Bids: 

  • Atch -40Z 

  • CGB -45Z 

  • AGP -55X 

  • KC -25X 

Notes: 

Corn 

  • Corn Export Sales have had a good start to the marketing year.  This week’s report was stronger than expected at 75.7 million bushels sold vs trade guesses of 39.4 to 70.9 million bushels. 

  • Sales are now 5% ahead of the pace needed seasonally to meet the USDA estimates for the year.   

  • A government shutdown looms ahead of the October 1st deadline.  Regardless of what happens with the shutdown, the September 30th stocks and acres report will be released as scheduled. 

  • If we think we’re looking at a major reduction in corn acres for next year, we may need to reconsider 

  • Beans have never gotten within sniffing distance of being a better bet than corn 

  • Will we lose a bunch of acres in a place like North Dakota?  The yields sound pretty good up there so far 

  • And with no soybean program, they really have no incentive to plant more of those 

  • On Sunday, Mexico confirmed a new case of the New World screwworm 

  • The case was located less than 70 miles from the U.S./Mexico border in Sabinas Hidalgo, Nuevo Leon 

  • Major automakers are asking the EPA to decrease vehicle emission limits, which would force them produce much more electric vehicles 

  • A group made up of GM, Toyota, VW, Hyundai, and others are arguing these EV rules set under Biden in 2024 aren’t achievable 

  • They also stated that challenges with the supply chain, charging infrastructure, market, and affordability make the current standards nearly impossible  

  • Given the current rules, the EPA predicts that in 2030-2032 between 35% to 56% of new vehicles sold would need to be electric 

  • Corn basis is in full on harvest mode. Little to no pushes to be had, even with the weather delays we’ve experienced. The next 10 days look to be wide open. Even with bean harvest looming, there seems to be enough corn moving to keep everyone satisfied. 

Soybeans 

  • Export sales were nothing to write home about this week, but that’s not a surprise since China is nowhere to be found 

  • China booked at least 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans after Argentina put a temporary halt on grain export taxes. 

  • The move boosts Argentina’s price competitiveness and undercuts U.S. farmers, who are already losing sales due to low prices and the U.S.–China trade war. 

  • The purchaseare for China’s fourth-quarter inventories, a period that normally favors U.S. soybean shipments. 

  • The loss in Chinese exports has not translated into significantly greater sales to other destinations despite U.S. soybean prices trading at a steep discount to South American origins. Total unshipped export sales to start the new marketing year for soybeans are down 40% YoY with sales to other nations outside of China down 2.2% YoY. 

  • Early-season export weakness is likely to persist, similar to the 2018/19 trade war when exports never fully recovered. 

  • China is releasing state soybean reserves and relying on South American supplies, leaving little chance for U.S. sales this year. 

  • Unlike 2018/19, U.S. domestic crush demand is expanding and helping offset lost exports. 

  • To fully replace an 18% export drop (as in 2018/19), U.S. crush capacity would need to rise 338 million bushels (+14%) to 2.768 billion bushels. 

  • On Thursday, President Trump said the US would give proceeds from tariff revenues to farmers to offset the losses from the trade war. Ag secretary Brooke Rollins said they are looking to model the approach taken during the previous Trump/China trade war.  

  • Severe drought has sharply reduced the Ohio River’s contribution to the Lower Mississippi River, dropping water levels to less than one-fifth of normal and threatening the key corridor that handles 60% of U.S. bulk exports. At the same time, the transportation system is already reshaping itself around weaker Chinese demand, with railroads favoring Gulf routes and alternative markets like Mexico and the EU over traditional Pacific Northwest export channels. Together, persistent low water on the Mississippi and shifting rail dynamics highlight how U.S. grain logistics are being reshaped by both environmental stress and changing global trade flows. 

  • There are quick ship bids to be had, but it is a matter if new crop bushels can take advantage of them. The need is immediate, so any hot bid will require delivery in the next few days. It appears there will be combines rolling once the fields firm up. Do not expect the early premiums to stick around too long. 

September 19, 2025

Weekly futures changes: 

  • CZ25 -2.75 

  • SX25 -7.00 

Nearby Basis Bids: 

  • Atch -40Z 

  • CGB -45Z 

  • AGP -55X 

  • KC -25X 

Notes: 

Corn

  • We have rallied almost 50 cents off the lows, largest harvest acres since the 1930s, maybe record yields  

  • For the first 11 days of the new marketing year, we’ve already shipped 85 mbu of corn 

  • More than double last year at the same time 

  • We are going to need this performance to meet USDA’s goal 

  • We are on track and currently beating last year’s exports to Mexico 

  • Friday’s report had the expected lower yield number of 186.7, but that wasn’t enough to offset the increase in harvested and planted acres – an increase in production by 72mbu  

  • Carryout was tightened up a bit as well after they raised exports and lowered ethanol and imports 

  • Ethanol margins have been trending lower since the first of September, but still at higher levels than what we saw over that past twelve months. 

  • This week, December corn futures failed to push through and close above key resistance at 429.  Assuming we don’t push through that resistance, look for December corn to maintain its range between 430 and 410.   

  

  • Export sales report was decent Thursday morning  

  • Middle of the road results with Mexico, South Korea and Japan leading the way. 

  • Yield reports are all over the place, from disappointing, to as expected, and better than expected.  

  • This mostly goes to expectations are subjective. Overall, yields are good, but the top end was taken off and the southern rust did take away some bushels. 

  • Quick ship bids continue to drift lower this week as more bushels hit the market. The recent and forecasted rains could provide some support, but once this weather pattern moves through, harvest will most likely finally get going 100%. Hearing reports rail shippers are not having an easy time finding bids for fall trains. The demand is most likely there, but buyers know that it will be easy to source corn the next 60 days. 

Soybeans

  • Pretty solid NOPA report out Monday 

  • 189.8million bushels crushed, almost six millioabove the average trade estimate and more than four million above the most optimistic guess -an Aug record by more than 2mbu. Final Sept-Aug NOPA crush winds up at a record 2.30bln bu, 13mln ahead of last season -around a 6% YoY increaseroughly in line with the USDA's total YoY crush estimate. 

  • Soybean oil stocks were over 50 mln below the average trade guess. Domestic oil use for Aug estimated at just over 2.4 bln lbs, an Aug record by a wide margin. 

  • Soybean oil jumped higher post-NOPA release on bullish stocks figure, while soybeans cut into pre-report losses with crush way above expectations. Meal gains a bit but still dragging on complex. 

  • 25/26 bean acres were raised 200K, with a 0.1 bpa drop, giving us a 9 mbu increase in production  

  • New crop crush was raised 15 mbu, with exports losing 20 mbu – resulting in a net 10 mbu increase to the carryout  

  • They could have cut the export number more but seems like they want to remain positive on the China front, even though demand has already been lost. 

  • With no Trade Deal on the horizon, it appears more and more likely that we’re going to be seeing some direct farm payments 

  • With no resolution from the EPA – bean oil had a real rough Wednesday 

  • Prices were down 2%  

  • Still just waiting to hear what the decision will be on the biofuel policy on exemptions for small refinery reallocation and the potential 50% RIN credit on imported feedstock 

  • No real changes in basis. Cargill KC got up and running sooner than planned, which has created a quick ship opportunity, but tough for many to take advantage of with beans not quite readyIf we do get additional rains the start of next week, there could be some premiums available. If so, they most likely will not last long. 

September 12, 2025

Weekly futures changes: 

  • CZ25 +3.50 

  • SX25 +10.25 

Nearby Basis Bids: 

  • Atch -38Z 

  • CGB -35Z 

  • AGP -55X 

  • KC -25X 

Notes: 

Corn

  • The Corn Belt just logged its driest August since 2013, and it’s having an effect on Mississippi River levels again, forcing lighter barge drafts, higher freight costs, and thus, weaker river basis. That’s a bad combo for U.S. exports just as we head into harvest. 

  • A decline in barge transport efficiency would be problematic with the large corn and soybean harvest quickly approaching and shifting rail use from slowed PNW soybean exports. 

  • About 60% of U.S. grain exports are shipped by barge on the Mississippi River; 

  • Due to the lack of soybean exports to China, PNW terminals are expected to shift to exporting corn to Japan and South Korea, where export sales are currently approaching record highs. 

  • Wednesday’s ethanol report showed a rise in both stocks and production 

  • Stocks rose 273K to 22,549K barrels 

  • Production rose 30K to 1,105K barrels/day 

  • It’s been 2.5 weeks since our last corn flash sale, although we remain competitive in the global market. 

  • Export sales for the week fell by 11 mbu compared to the previous week, with no new crop sales reported. 

  • Overall, sales came in well below weekly estimates 

  • Besides a few quick ship bids, there is not much going on for basis changes. More combines get in the fields each day and with the warmer temps ahead, corn will start drying down quicker and take the quick ship bids away.  

Soybeans

  • Thursday’s export sales report showed just 19.9 mbu of old-crop sales for the 25/26 marketing year, landing at the low end of expectations (14.7–58.8 mbu). That’s only about one-third of both the three-year average and last year’s total for the same week. 

  • Today at 11 a.m. CT, tune in for the monthly WASDE. We'll see if USDA trims yields as expected and whether demand gets adjusted, especially with China out of the market. 

  • Oilseed crushers quickly responded to wider crush margins in July and accelerated the crush pace.  

  • August crush margins fell sharply because of a drop in soyoil prices and higher soybean prices, which may have caused the August crush pace to slow although NOPA hasn’t released the August numbers yet. 

  • Stronger biofuel usage and faster soymeal exports are needed to support crush margins as crush capacity expands. 

  • The new Mitchell, SD bean processing plant opened its doors on Tuesday with AGP David City, NE not too far behind as well 

  • Brazilian farmers are set to begin planting their 25/26 soybean crop this month  

  • They are expected to expand their planted areas for the 19th consecutive year  

  • “They aren’t making more of it”…except in Brazil…  

  • Over the past 18 years, they have expanded soybean area by nearly 130% 

  • (Bloomberg) China imported a record volume of soybeans for August to build a buffer against possible shortages as a protracted trade war with the US — its second-largest supplier — drags on. 

  • The world’s biggest soybean importer purchased 12.28 million tons in August, the highest ever recorded for the month, shoring up local availability before US supplies begin to dominate the global market. 

  • China has traditionally sourced a large share of its soybean imports from the US, but ongoing trade tensions have pushed it to favor Brazil. The recent purchases reflect a strategic move to reduce reliance on the US shipments ahead of the export season that’s expected to peak in the coming months. 

  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and others next week in Madrid 

  • They are expected to continue their discussions on trade, economic and national security issues  

  • Don’t expect a resolution any time soon. 

  • Basis quiet this week. Processors do not seem to have a need to get coverage going into harvest. Cargill KC is still down, although they are now saying they will start receiving beans again the 18th, which is a few days earlier than previously scheduled. We still expect a big storage issue for soybeans this fall.