Grain Market Commentary

July 17, 2026

Weekly Change

CU26  +4
CZ26 +5'4
SQ26 +11
SX26  +12'2

Weekly Grain Market Update

Corn

- This week was another reminder of just how quickly July weather markets can change. Monday's rally was fueled by forecasts calling for widespread heat, warm overnight temperatures, and very limited rainfall during one of the most critical stages of corn pollination. By Tuesday, updated weather models introduced cooler temperatures and improved rain chances across portions of the Corn Belt, quickly removing much of that weather premium. As the week progressed, forecasts once again trended hotter and drier across parts of the western Corn Belt, allowing corn to recover. During pollination, the forecast can move the market just as much as the weather itself.

- While weather dominated the headlines, demand quietly remained the backbone of the corn market. Export inspections once again came in near the top end of trade expectations, keeping shipments ahead of USDA's projected pace. Mexico continues to be a reliable buyer of U.S. corn, and strong export movement has helped keep Gulf basis firm while barge freight continues to strengthen. Commercial buyers continue competing for ownership, providing support underneath the futures market despite expectations for another large crop.

- Crop conditions improved to 68% good-to-excellent this week, but ratings still trail last year's pace and much of the western Corn Belt remains one timely rain away from seeing yield potential begin slipping. Pollination conditions over the next two weeks will likely play a major role in determining the size of this year's crop. Warm nighttime temperatures continue to be a concern as corn relies on cooler nights to recover from daytime stress.

- Another notable shift has been fund positioning. After spending much of the year carrying a sizeable short position, managed funds have moved back to the long side of the corn market. While weather has driven much of that buying, strong exports and firm commercial demand have also helped improve market sentiment. The combination of weather uncertainty and healthy demand continues to leave plenty of volatility in the market heading into the second half of July.

Soybeans

- Soybeans experienced another volatile week as weather forecasts continued to shift, but demand continues to tell one of the strongest stories in the grain markets. November futures repeatedly tested the $12.00 level, with improved weather forecasts creating selling pressure before buyers stepped back into the market.

- Domestic demand remains exceptional. June soybean crush totaled 214.3 million bushels, well above trade expectations and keeping the marketing-year crush pace running more than 12% ahead of last year. Strong soybean oil demand, supported by higher diesel prices and renewable diesel production, continues to provide processors with attractive margins and keeps crushers aggressively bidding for available bushels.

- One of the biggest developments this week came Thursday morning when USDA announced over 706,000 metric tons of new-crop soybean flash sales in a single day. Those sales included 340,000 metric tons to China, 256,634 metric tons to Mexico, and another 110,000 metric tons to unknown destinations. Flash sales of this size are an encouraging sign that export demand remains active heading into harvest and reinforce the strong demand story that has been supporting soybeans over the past several weeks.

- Cash markets continue telling the same story. Basis remains firm across much of the Midwest as crushers and exporters compete for physical ownership. Gulf basis remains strong, barge freight continues moving higher, and commercial buyers continue chasing bushels despite expectations for another large U.S. crop. While weather will ultimately determine final yields, strong crush demand, improving exports, and aggressive commercial buying continue providing solid support underneath the soybean market.

Looking Ahead

- Weather will continue to dominate daily price movement as corn pollination progresses and soybeans move deeper into their critical reproductive stages. Forecasts will likely continue changing from day to day, keeping volatility elevated. At the same time, strong export demand, firm basis levels, excellent domestic crush margins, and renewed soybean buying from China continue to provide encouraging support underneath both corn and soybean markets.

- While weather remains the biggest short-term driver, the demand side of the balance sheet continues improving. That combination should continue creating opportunities as we move through the heart of the growing season.