January 9, 2026

Corn export inspections look good though we had a bit of a holiday slowdown last week 

We went from 52.6 mbu the week of 12/25 to 47.5 mbu for last week 

Last Friday afternoon the USDA released their November Fats & Oils Report 

Corn used for ethanol was 472 mbu, down from 476 mbu in October 

Corn has chopped back and forth this week, staying firmly rangebound, and it looks like that pattern will likely hold until the January 12 WASDE. 

There is a growing and growing consensus that we’re going to plant 95+ million acres of corn again next spring 

Woof – carry outs should really balloon if this holds up 

DOE Ethanol report showed stocks increasing to 23.7 million barrels  

Up from 22.9 million barrels the week before, but down from 24.1 a year ago  

Ethanol production dropped week over week 

With production at 1,098K barrels/day, down from 1,120K barrels/day the week before 

The production of ethanol used an estimated 109.8 mbu of corn for the week ending Jan 2nd  

Down from 112 mbu the week before, but up from 108.1 mbu a year ago  

Estimated marketing YTD corn use for ethanol totals 1.904 billion bu, matching the previous year’s pace  

But down 4 mbu from the USDA’s target  

Here is a look at current ethanol margins  

USDA Report estimates have corn carryout at 1.97 billion 

We think there will be a lot of folks really upset about the 184 bpa corn estimate 

There is good reasoning to believe that yield estimate is too high 

But there is also good reasoning that last year’s number was too low 

So, the USDA is solving for the CO/Use ratio of about 12.5-13.5% and they’ll use a big number from this year to get there 

Because you must admit…there is plenty of corn out here even though we have fantastic demand and it had to come from somewhere 

The Argentine corn crop is mostly planted  

And is still off to a great start compared to the seasonal average  

We saw a little decline in condition over the past week, but nothing to stress about 

The Argentine bean crop is also performing good compared to the average for this time of year 

Another week of blah basis values. The only consolation is there seems to be a little more interest from rail shippers as freight values have declined to help make them more competitive locally. With that, they are also not setting the world on fire, but it is good to see some activity. 

The big news of the week—the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. Special Forces—has not had the market impact one might expect. 

You would think such an event would create volatility in the crude oil markets, yet crude is only up a dollar on the week. 

You might also expect a negative reaction in soybeans, given the potential for further strain on U.S.–China relations, but beans are actually up 20 cents on the week. 

Some traders suggest that restructuring of fund positions may be partially to blame. It seems odd that funds would sell gold to buy oversupplied soybeans, but that’s what the prospectus dictates—so that’s what they do. 

A review of March soybean futures suggests prices are bouncing off a trendline that was established over a year ago. 

Another supportive development this week was China’s purchase of roughly a dozen soybean cargoes, which continues to lend support to the market. 

These shipments are scheduled for the March/April/May delivery window—right at the peak of South America’s export capacity. 

Hopefully these sales get executed; it just seems unlikely considering the discrepancy in prices between the US and Brazil.

Soybean stocks continue to pile up over in China  

Which, as previously mentioned, doesn’t bode well for shipments on all the recent Chinese purchases from the U.S. 

Especially when you throw in a big ol’ Brazilian harvest knocking on the door 

WASDE estimates have soybean carryout at 292 million 

Projected yield is 52.7 compared to December’s print of 53.0 

Exports will tell the story 

Will the USDA make changes lower because of how exports have performed YTD? 

Or are they still banking on the Chinese to fulfill their commitments? 

Speaking on a big ol’ Brazilian crop… 

StoneX Brazil raised their 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production estimates yesterday 

Now at 177.6 MMMT, up from 177.2 MMT last month 

The raise was due to higher yields in Mato Grosso 

Brazil wrapped up 2025 with an all-time high for annual soybean exports at 108.2 MMT (3.975 billion bu)  

China claimed a record large 85.4 MMT of these (3.139 billion bu)  

Numbers that have more than doubled in the past 10 years 

On Friday, the USDA pegged total November soybean crush at 220.5 mbu, below the 225.2 mbu estimate. 

For reference, last November’s crush came in at 210.0 mbu.