April 3, 2026

CK26 –9.75 

SK26 +3.25 

Atch -7K 

CGB -30K 

AGP -30K 

KC +5k 

Good morning and welcome back. We’re rolling into a new week and a new month with no shortage of things to watch. Between fresh USDA data, ongoing geopolitical tension, and improving weather, there’s a lot for this market to chew on.  

The Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports gave us some updated baseline numbers, but the reality is the market continues to trade headlines just as much—if not more—than fundamentals right now.  

Corn finally took a breather after an impressive run. December ’26 snapped what was essentially a 9-week winning streak—something that quietly built without a lot of attention.  

Not a huge surprise to see a pause here. When you stack up the fundamentals, there are some clear headwinds:  

March 1 stocks came in at 9.02 billion bushels, up 11% from last year  

On-farm storage jumped noticeably, reinforcing the idea that there’s still a lot of corn sitting out there  

Especially across the western Corn Belt, it still feels like there’s a “slug” of old crop left to move  

Acreage came in at 95.3 million, a bit above expectations. That said, it’s hard to get too worked up about that number:  

Surveys were done before the escalation in the Middle East  

Response rate was only around 37%  

Bottom line: it’s a starting point, not gospel  

Demand has been the bright spot:  

Export inspections at 70.5 mbu were well above expectations  

Total pace is running nearly 300 mbu ahead of USDA projections  

Mexico continues to lead the charge, but it’s encouraging to see a wide mix of buyers  

Even with solid demand, it still feels like corn is lacking a true bullish spark:  

Big supplies  

Large fund long position  

No real weather threat yet  

Funds have continued to build their net long, which works…until it doesn’t. If sentiment shifts, that length can turn into pressure pretty quickly.  

Overall feel:  

Corn isn’t collapsing, but it does feel heavy  

Rallies may continue to run into sellers unless something changes the story  

Beans have been a little more lively, but not necessarily in a clean direction. A lot of back-and-forth trade, mostly driven by outside markets.  

From the USDA report:  

Stocks at 2.10 billion bushels, up 10% year-over-year  

Acres at 84.7 million, right in the range of expectations  

Just like corn, those acreage numbers already feel dated given how quickly the macro picture has shifted.  

The real support story for beans continues to be tied to crush and biofuels:  

Crush margins are pushing $3 per bushel, best levels since 2023  

That’s a strong signal that processors are very comfortable owning beans  

EPA biofuel guidance is adding fuel to the fire (no pun intended)  

There’s talk that up to 20% of bean oil demand could shift toward biofuels in the next couple years  

On the flip side, exports aren’t doing beans many favors:  

Latest inspections at 21.5 mbu, toward the low end of expectations  

China still has plenty of supply on hand  

Brazil harvest is slightly behind pace, but still moving along and adding competition  

Technically, beans have been messy:  

Trading in a wide range  

At times looking like a bear flag… until it isn’t  

Quick reversals have made it tough to trust charts  

Still, there’s a growing sense that:  

These prices may not be something to take for granted  

Especially if biofuel demand materializes the way some expect  

This market isn’t trading in a vacuum right now—far from it.  

The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to drive volatility across the board:  

Energy prices have pushed above $100 at times  

Commodities, including grains, have followed that money flow  

At the same time:  

Equities have been shaky, recently hitting multi-month lows before bouncing  

The VIX has surged significantly since late last year, reflecting elevated uncertainty  

The big takeaway:  

Money flow is playing a major role in price direction  

When uncertainty rises → money moves into commodities  

When things calm down → that money can leave just as quickly  

As we move into April, the market’s focus will start to shift:  

Planting progress  

Early season weather  

First crop progress reports  

But don’t expect fundamentals to fully take over just yet:  

Headline risk is still very real  

Geopolitical developments can (and will) move markets quickly  

Final thoughts:  

Corn: solid demand, but weighed down by supply and positioning  

Soybeans: supported by crush and biofuels, but lacking export strength  

Both: at the mercy of macro flows in the short term  

Bottom line:  

Expect volatility to stick around  

And be ready for a market that can change direction just as fast as the headlines do